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A Model of Risks and Risk Avoidance

We present below a theoretical model for involuntary resettlement that highlights the intrinsic risks that cause impoverishment through displacement, as well as the ways to counteract-eliminate or mitigate-these risks. This conceptual model is defined as the impoverishment risks and reconstruction model for resettling displaced populations. In elaborating this model, the aim has been

(a) to explain what happens during massive forced displacements-a task very important in itself, and

(b) to create a theoretical and safeguarding tool capable of guiding policy, planning, and actual development programs to counteract these adverse effects.

We believe that this impoverishment risks and reconstruction (IRR) model substantively adds to the tools of explaining, diagnosing, predicting, and planning for development and thus helps create the knowledge compass needed for complex resettlement situations.

In presenting the impoverishment risks and livelihood reconstruction framework, we first emphasize the need for theoretical modeling in resettlement research and briefly review prior models. We also raise the issue of commonalities between refugee and resettlement situations and the possible application of this resettlement framework in refugee research as well. Second, we define the four basic functions of this model, and, further, identify and document the principal risks of impoverishment one by one. In the next section, we turn the model on its head, to argue that it intrinsically points the way to risk reversals and can guide strategies for reestablishing resettlers' livelihoods, based on an "economics of recovery." The last part of this chapter compares some of the current mainstream resettlement practices and analytical methods with the new model proposed, and recommends ways to improve resettlement practice and research.

Over the years, students of planned human settlements on new lands have proposed several conceptual frameworks to describe planned settlement processes. By the late 1960s, Chambers (1969) identified a three-stage general model in the evolution of land settlement schemes in Africa. Soon after, Nelson (1973) confirmed this pattern in a synthesis of many experiences with new land settlements in Latin America. Both models-Chambers' and Nelson's-generalized the experience of voluntary settlers and conceptualized the institutional/organizational dimensions of managed land-settlement programs.

Building upon these earlier concepts, Scudder and Colson formulated in 1982 a theoretical model of settlement processes distinguishing four, rather than three, stages: recruitment, transition, development, and incorporation/handing over. The Scudder-Colson diachronic framework was built around the key concept of "stage"; it focused on settlers' stress and their specific behavioral reactions in each stage. Initially, the model was formulated to apply to voluntary settlement processes. Subsequently, Scudder extended it to some involuntary resettlement processes as well, but only to those involuntary relocations that succeed and move through all four stages, as the model is not intended to apply to resettlement operations that fail and do not complete the last two stages.

Moving to the domain of refugee studies proper, we find the conceptual framework for interpreting refugee situations proposed by Emmanuel Marx (1990). This model was grounded in the sociological theory of networks and centered on what its author termed "the social world of refugees."

From one theoretical framework to the other, these attempts to distill accumulated knowledge into patterns and conceptual models have created intellectual tools that helped many researchers to interpret their particular field findings. They have helped distinguish regularities and build theories on settlement processes. Beyond their merits, however, these models were less productive in some important respects. None of these models has placed at its center the onset of impoverishment, its unfolding, and the process of escaping impoverishment. Among the conceptual models mentioned above only one, the Scudder-Colson model, addressed involuntary resettlements as well, and it did so only for cases of successful resettlement. Historically, however, the majority of involuntary resettlement operations have been unsuccessful. The cumulative impacts of failed resettlements were not "modeled" in the Scudder-Colson framework of stages.

There has been further discussion in the literature (de Wet 1988, Partridge 1989) around these conceptual models-yet certainly not enough, as Scudder (1996) rightly observed. But there was, and is, a broad consensus on the need to persevere in searching for theoretical constructs that explain and illuminate the complexities of resettlement.

The call for developing a more comprehensive theoretical model was perhaps voiced strongest by Brenchin, West, and associates (1991) in their massive volume on the displacement of resident populations from nature conservation parks. The authors maintained that many development decisions that involve involuntary relocation are made without the full anticipation of the general impact pattern triggered. Calling for a model that would define and predict the cumulative impacts of displacement and would provide a practical guide, they wrote:

What is too little understood both by professionals and scholars alike is the social impact of displacement and relocation. When resident peoples are forced to move, certain general impacts can be expected. But the collective social impact on the community or other social organizations differs widely from case to case; to date no model exists to predict the cumulative effect (1991:17).

The impoverishment risks and reconstruction framework presented in this chapter aims precisely at rendering these "cumulative effects" analytically understandable, both distinctly and in their interconnection. It does so by modeling the constitutive sub-processes of displacement and the mechanisms for "influencing" them-that is, for preventing or eliminating them through deliberate action. The IRR model builds upon, and further advances, the prior modeling efforts summarized above. The IRR model has been formulated and developed relatively recently, during the 1990s, in a series of studies (Cernea 1990, 1995b, 1996a, 1998, and 1999; World Bank 1994). A preliminary version was first applied on a wide scale in the resettlement review of almost 200 projects carried out by the World Bank in 1993-1994 (World Bank 1994). The origin of this model is both empirical and theoretical. Empirically, it is derived from the extraordinary accumulation of factual findings during the last quarter century, reported by resettlement studies in many countries. Theoretically, it benefits from the new state-of-the-art achieved by resettlement research during the same period.[1]

Forward to Similarities in Refugee Resettlement Situations

Backward to Social Justice and Forced Displacements

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[1] The state-of-the-art in resettlement research, and the main areas of recent progress in the knowledge of resettlement, are discussed in more detail in Cernea, 1999; see also the "Annotated Bibliography" on involuntary resettlement published by Guggenheim, 1994. Since the publication of this bibliography in 1994, the resettlement literature has continued to grow explosively.

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